Will Chris Wright say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Chris Wright said “Iran / Iranian” at 6 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 9, 2026 (86%), most recently on Oct 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 episodes we have transcripts for (Mar 8, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 6/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Chris Wright
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 56% · n=7
- Settled
- 6/7 (86%)
- Last 5 episodes
- said in 5 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
4 counted; 13 by speakers the rule does not count.
Look, the president has – has taken a strong stand that Iran, the world's greatest terrorist regime – regime, cannot and will not have nuclear…
…have just kicked the can down the road and delivered a nuclear-armed Iran to the next president. You've got to respect that. That's an incredible…
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 8 by speakers the rule does not count.
…in the region right now is to stop the export of any Iranian crude or crude-related products, natural gas, whatever. We are strangling their economy…
…we've been involved. That's pretty tremendous. Alaska has been sanctioned more than Iran by Democratic politicians. We've got to unleash Alaska, and that's happening. The…
Counts: named speaker only
4 counted; 20 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
Questions
- How often does Chris Wright say “Iran / Iranian”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Chris Wright said “Iran / Iranian” at 6 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 9, 2026 (86%), most recently on Oct 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Chris Wright says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Chris Wright: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/chris-wright/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=chris-wright&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=chris-wright&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP