Barack Obama: Speech, Aug 20, 2024
Polymarket What will Obama say during DNC speech?
Markets
13 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Climate change | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Donald Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hope | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joe Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Michelle | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obamacare/Affordable Care Act | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thank you 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Muslim | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pelosi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Underdog | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Yes we can | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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