What is the probability Abdul El-Sayed says “AIPAC” next time?

61%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Abdul El-Sayed say “AIPAC”?

Name: Abdul El-Sayed: “AIPAC” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Abdul El-Sayed said “AIPAC” at 4 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 9, 2026 (57%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 24, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

61%from settlement history only · n=7counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 4/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no yes yes
Streak: said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 00:15 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Abdul El-Sayed

AIPAC

Probability: 61% · n=7
Settled: 4/7 (57%)
Last 5 episodes: said in 1 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Abdul El-Sayed say during Fox News: The Story with Martha MacCallum? · our count 0 (needs 1) · the market settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Abdul El-Sayed say during All In with Chris Hayes? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted.

Abdul El-Sayedguest31:27In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

What will Abdul El-Sayed say during The Beat with Ari Melber? · not listed

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What will Abdul El-Sayed say during The Weeknight? · not said

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What will Abdul El-Sayed say during The Moment with Katy Tur? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Abdul El-Sayed say during Fox News: Jesse Watters Primetime? · not said

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What will Abdul El-Sayed say during MS NOW: The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · settled no

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What will Abdul El-Sayed say during Meet the Press? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

Every settled listing

newest first · 7 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result	Our count
Oct 5, 2026	AIPAC	Kalshi	Yes	0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Oct 5, 2026	AIPAC	Kalshi	Yes	1
Sep 16, 2026	AIPAC	Kalshi	No	0
Aug 28, 2026	AIPAC	Kalshi	Yes	–
Aug 24, 2026	AIPAC	Kalshi	No	0
Aug 20, 2026	AIPAC	Kalshi	No	–
Aug 9, 2026	AIPAC	Kalshi	Yes	–

Questions

How often does Abdul El-Sayed say “AIPAC”?: As of Oct 25, 2026, Abdul El-Sayed said “AIPAC” at 4 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 9, 2026 (57%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026.
What is the probability Abdul El-Sayed says “AIPAC” next time?: 61%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Abdul El-Sayed: ‘AIPAC’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/abdul-el-sayed/words/aipac (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=abdul-el-sayed&word=aipac · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=abdul-el-sayed&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP