Will “Idiot / Dumb” be said on All-In Podcast next time?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Idiot / Dumb” was said on All-In Podcast in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 19, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 19, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 11, 2026 – Oct 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
All-In Podcast
Idiot / Dumb
- Probability
- 50% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 4 episodes
- said in 3 of 4
Next listing counts: anyone
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…their equipment, as Ben pointed out. Well, you can't, look, this is dumb because like, I think Michael explained it, like you have this opco…
…are going to get the lion's share of that money. They're not dumb. I think the alternative view that everyone needs to be told about,…
…jacob part of this sacks or is he just like a useful idiot in all this so they're identifying who are the people who have…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2025 | Idiot / Dumb |  Polymarket | No |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Idiot / Dumb | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Idiot / Dumb” said on All-In Podcast?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Idiot / Dumb” was said on All-In Podcast in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 19, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 19, 2025.
- What is the probability “Idiot / Dumb” is said on All-In Podcast next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “All-In Podcast: ‘Idiot / Dumb’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/all-in-podcast/words/dumb-or-idiot (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=all-in-podcast&word=dumb%20%2F%20idiot · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=all-in-podcast&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP