Will “Joni / Ernst” be said on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Joni / Ernst” was not said on The Last Word in any of the 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
35%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
Joni / Ernst
- Probability
- 35% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Joni / Ernst |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Joni / Ernst | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Joni / Ernst” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Joni / Ernst” was not said on The Last Word in any of the 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 25, 2026.
- What is the probability “Joni / Ernst” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Joni / Ernst’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/ernst-or-joni (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=ernst%20%2F%20joni · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP