Will “Tariff” be said on The Briefing next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said on The Briefing in 5 of 9 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 9, 2026 (56%), most recently on Sep 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 8, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 5/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Briefing with Jen Psaki
Tariff
- Probability
- 46% · n=9
- Settled
- 5/9 (56%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Tariff |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Tariff / Tariffs | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Tariff” said on The Briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said on The Briefing in 5 of 9 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 9, 2026 (56%), most recently on Sep 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Tariff” is said on The Briefing next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Briefing: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-briefing-with-jen-psaki/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-briefing-with-jen-psaki&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-briefing-with-jen-psaki&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP