Will “Trump” be said on All In next time?
As of Oct 27, 2026, “Trump” was said on All In in 3 of 7 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 27, 2026 (43%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 7 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 24, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
All In with Chris Hayes
Trump
- Probability
- 51% · n=7
- Settled
- 3/7 (43%)
- Last 7 episodes
- said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted; 18 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Counts: named speaker only
12 counted; 17 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
3 counted; 33 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Trump |  Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | Yes | 12 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 27, 2026 | Trump | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Trump” said on All In?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, “Trump” was said on All In in 3 of 7 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 27, 2026 (43%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026.
- What is the probability “Trump” is said on All In next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “All In: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/all-in-with-chris-hayes/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=all-in-with-chris-hayes&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=all-in-with-chris-hayes&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP