All In with Chris Hayes: Episode, Aug 20, 2026
Kalshi What will James Talarico say during MS NOW: All in with Chris Hayes?
Markets
11 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Yes | 67%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 60%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud / Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ken Paxton / Paxton | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXALLINMENTION-26AUG20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP