Real Time with Bill Maher
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi has settled 22 word markets on Real Time with Bill Maher since 2025, on 21 different words.
History Wall
1–21 of 21, most settled first| Word | Oct 18 ’25episode | Nov 1latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump3+ times | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), Oct 18 ’25 episode | Settled no: Trump (3+ times), Nov 1 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 40%n=2 from settlement history |
| 1929 | Settled yes: 1929, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: 1929, Nov 1 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| America First | Not listed: America First, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Settled yes: America First, Nov 1 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Biden, Nov 1 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China | Not listed: China, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Settled yes: China, Nov 1 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Cost Plus Drug | Settled yes: Cost Plus Drug, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Cost Plus Drug, Nov 1 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Democrat | Not listed: Democrat, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Democrat, Nov 1 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Shutdown / Shut Down, Nov 1 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Stock Market | Settled yes: Stock Market, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Stock Market, Nov 1 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Woke | Settled yes: Woke, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Woke, Nov 1 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Antifa | Not listed: Antifa, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Settled no: Antifa, Nov 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | Settled no: Bitcoin / Crypto, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Bitcoin / Crypto, Nov 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Border | Not listed: Border, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Settled no: Border, Nov 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Drug | Not listed: Drug, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Settled no: Drug, Nov 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Great Depression | Settled no: Great Depression, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Great Depression, Nov 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Healthcare | Not listed: Healthcare, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Settled no: Healthcare, Nov 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ICE | Not listed: ICE, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Settled no: ICE, Nov 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Settled no: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Nov 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Netflix | Settled no: Netflix, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Netflix, Nov 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Retire / Retirement | Settled no: Retire / Retirement, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: Retire / Retirement, Nov 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| TikTok | Settled no: TikTok, Oct 18 ’25 episode | Not listed: TikTok, Nov 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Marjorie Taylor Greene say during Real Time with Bill Maher? | no transcript | 12 | 5 yes · 7 no | – |
| Oct 18, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Bill Maher say during Real Time with Bill Maher? | no transcript | 10 | 5 yes · 5 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Real Time with Bill Maher: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/real-time-with-bill-maher (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/real-time-with-bill-maher · words: /api/v1/history?entity=real-time-with-bill-maher · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP