Real Time with Bill Maher: Episode, Nov 1, 2025
Kalshi What will Marjorie Taylor Greene say during Real Time with Bill Maher?
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| America First | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Antifa | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drug | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAHERMENTION-25NOV01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP