What is the probability “Shutdown / Shut Down” is said on Real Time next time?

47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Shutdown / Shut Down” be said on Real Time next time?

Name: Real Time: “Shutdown / Shut Down” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said on Real Time in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Nov 1, 2025.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 12:08 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Real Time with Bill Maher

Shutdown / Shut Down

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Real Time with Bill Maher yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Marjorie Taylor Greene say during Real Time with Bill Maher? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Bill Maher say during Real Time with Bill Maher? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Nov 1, 2025	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	Yes

Questions

How often is “Shutdown / Shut Down” said on Real Time?: As of Oct 24, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said on Real Time in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Nov 1, 2025.
What is the probability “Shutdown / Shut Down” is said on Real Time next time?: 47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Real Time: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/real-time-with-bill-maher/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=real-time-with-bill-maher&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=real-time-with-bill-maher&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP