Donald Trump: Speech, Feb 24, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say first during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Markets
78 words · 1 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| America / American | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | No | 61%n=186 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful | No | 56%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 53%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 52%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| None | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Other | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 10 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 11 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 12 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 13 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 14 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 15 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 16 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 17 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 18 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 19 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 2 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 20 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 21 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 22 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 23 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 24 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 25 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 26 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 27 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 28 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 29 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 3 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 30 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 31 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 32 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 33 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 34 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 35 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 36 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 37 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 38 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 39 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 4 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 40 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 41 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 42 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 43 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 44 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 45 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 46 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 47 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 48 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 49 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 5 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 50 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 51 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 52 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 53 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 54 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 55 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 56 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 57 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 58 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 59 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 6 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 60 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 61 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 62 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 63 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 64 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 65 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 66 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 67 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 68 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 69 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 7 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 70 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 8 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term 9 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stupid / Low IQ | No | 38%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 12%n=282 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-first-during-the-2026-state-of-the-union-address · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP