# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2026-05-14 · 18 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-china-state-banquet · as_of 2026-10-26T08:47:14Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-05-14 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-china-state-banquet (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the State Banquet scheduled for May 14, 2026.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Hottest	hottest	221	118	0.53	YYYYYnYYYn	1	1	0.49	hist	no
Farm / Farmer	farm|farmer	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.45	hist	no
Sovereign / Sovereignty	sovereign|sovereignty	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.44	hist	no
Ancient	ancient	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.43	hist	yes
Friendship	friendship	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.39	hist	no
Tiger	tiger	3	2	0.67	YnY	1	0	0.39	hist	no
Heaven	heaven	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.39	hist	no
World War II	world war ii	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	1	0.39	hist	yes
Nixon	nixon	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.37	hist	no
Gun	gun	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.35	hist	no
Confucius / Confucian	confucian|confucius	0	0			1	0	0.39	prior	yes
Dynasty	dynasty	0	0			1	0	0.39	prior	no
Forbidden City	forbidden city	0	0			1	0	0.39	prior	no
Paper	paper	0	0			1	1	0.39	prior	yes
Ping-pong / Ping Pong	ping pong	0	0			1	0	0.39	prior	no
Silk Road	silk road	0	0			1	0	0.39	prior	no
Temple	temple	0	0			1	0	0.39	prior	no
Biden	biden	245	166	0.68	YYYYnYYnnn	1	1