Will Sam Altman say “OpenAI” 4+ times?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Sam Altman did not say “OpenAI” 4+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Dec 8, 2025.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 keynote; Jul 22, 2025 – Oct 10, 2025), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (4+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Sam Altman
OpenAI 4+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode, 1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…saw pretty quickly after was we we all everybody who worked at OpenAI started to get these stories of how people were using CHBT when…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | OpenAI 4+ times |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Sam Altman say “OpenAI 4+ times”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Sam Altman did not say “OpenAI” 4+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Dec 8, 2025.
- What is the probability Sam Altman says “OpenAI 4+ times” next time?
- 11%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Sam Altman: ‘OpenAI 4+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/sam-altman/words/openai-4plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sam-altman&word=openai%20%284%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sam-altman&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP