MrBeast: Episode, Apr 10, 2026
Polymarket What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?
Markets
23 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feastables | Yes | 40%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Challenge 3+ times | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Chandler 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dollar 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ronaldo | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Subscribe / Subscribers | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thousand / Million 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Movie / Film | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tesla / Lamborghini | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Contestant | No | 48%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Prize | No | 45%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Insane | No | 35%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Boat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Channel 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Darius | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Donate / Donated | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lock In | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mark / Rober | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Raise / Raised | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sponsor / Sponsored | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Island | No | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Beast Games | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-mrbeast-say-during-his-next-youtube-video-391 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP