Joe Biden: Debate, Jun 27, 2024
Polymarket What will Biden say during the debate?
Markets
13 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Come on | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Convicted Felon | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| January 6 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Malarkey | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cornpop | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Folks 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obama | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shut up | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Woke | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zyn | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-biden-say-during-the-debate · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP