Benjamin Netanyahu: Speech, Sep 24, 2026
Kalshi What will Netanyahu say during the United Nations General Assembly?
Polymarket What will Netanyahu say during the United Nations General Assembly?
Markets
26 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 68%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Palestine | Yes | 65%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | Yes | 63%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| October 7 | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani / Mayor | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Antisemitic / Antisemitism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Lebanon 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regime 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Settler / Settlement | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terror / Terrorist / Terrorism 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Violence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Yemen / Houthis | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Lebanon | No | 56%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Abraham Accords | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iron Dome | No | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNETANYAHUMENTION-26SEP24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP