MrBeast: Episode, Apr 5, 2026
Kalshi What will MrBeast say during his livestream?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Million | Yes | 81%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Chandler | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Twitch | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Chat 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Easter | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Subscribe | Yes | 47%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Feastable | Yes | 42%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pokemon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reese's | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Survivor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mario / Galaxy | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sponsor / Sponsored | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tesla | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMRBEASTMENTION-26APR05B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP