What is the probability “Iran” is said on Oscars next time?

36%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Name: Oscars: “Iran” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran” was not said on Oscars in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 16, 2026.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 05:33 UTC

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Oscars

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Oscars yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

Mention: Conan O'Brien hosts the Oscars · settled no

What will be said during the Oscars? · not listed

What will Conan say at the Oscars? · not listed

What will Conan say at the Oscars (Early Expiration)? · not listed

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Mar 16, 2026	Iran	Kalshi	No

How often is “Iran” said on Oscars?: As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran” was not said on Oscars in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 16, 2026.
What is the probability “Iran” is said on Oscars next time?: 36%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Oscars: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/oscars/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=oscars&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=oscars&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP