# Oscars (oscars) · awards 2026-03-16 · 14 words · K k:KXMENTION-CONA26MAR15 · as_of 2026-10-24T23:54:48Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-16 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXMENTION-CONA26MAR15 ({word} = w of K rows): If Conan O'Brien says {word} as part of 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Timothée / Chalamet	chalamet|timothee	2	2	1	YY	0.53	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	1	1	Y	0.52	hist	yes
Netflix	netflix	1	1	1	Y	0.52	hist	yes
Iran	iran	0	0			0.52	hist	no
Leo / DiCaprio	dicaprio|leo	0	0			0.52	hist	yes
Will Smith	will smith	0	0			0.52	hist	no
Epstein	epstein	3	0	0	nnn	0.29	hist	no
Trump	trump	3	0	0	nnn	0.29	hist	no
Hollywood	hollywood	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Hulu	hulu	0	0			0.41	prior	no
ICE / Border	border|ice	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Marty Supreme	marty supreme	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Podcast / Podcaster	podcast|podcaster	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Warner	warner	0	0			0.41	prior	no