Kamala Harris: Panel, Apr 10, 2026
Kalshi What will Kamala Harris say during her NAN Fireside Chat?
Markets
16 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 60%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obama | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | No | 28%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / TSA | No | 22%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXKAMALAMENTION-26APR10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP