Congressional hearings, Jun 24, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the hearing on healthcare fraud?
Markets
14 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 77%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | 71%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hospice | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Subsidy / Subsidize / Subsidized | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Covid / Pandemic | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Whistleblower | Yes | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 76%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Autistic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| California | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Childcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia / Somalian / Somali | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUN24C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP