Congressional hearings, Jun 24, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the hearing on fraud prevention?
Markets
14 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 77%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 76%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | 71%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Audit / Audited | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Artemis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| False Claims Act / FCA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Foreign | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kickback | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DEI / Woke | Yes | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Whistleblower | Yes | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Donate / Donated / Donation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Covid / Pandemic | No | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUN24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP