Congressional hearings, Jun 4, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Homeland Security hearing on AI Security?
Markets
15 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| National Security | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Agentic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cybersecurity | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mythos | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Open Source | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Quantum | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Espionage | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Data Center | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| KYC | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Encrypted / Encryption | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUN04B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP