Wes Moore: Speech, Feb 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Wes Moore say during his State of the State address
Markets
14 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Housing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / Border | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Port / Bridge | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Redistrict / Redistricted / Redistricting | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billionaire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bipartisan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reelection / Reelect | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax Cut | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXGOVERNORMENTION-26FEB12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP