Congressional hearings, Feb 26, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Small Business Fraud hearing?
Markets
16 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accountable / Accountability | Yes | 72%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Billion | Yes | 67%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 67%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | 67%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| PPP / Paycheck Protection Program | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Audit / Audited | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pandemic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Waste | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Covid | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Cares Act | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vaccine / Vaccination | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Whistleblower | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCONGRESSMENTION-26FEB26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP