# Sam Altman (sam-altman) · tv_episode 2025-12-09 · 15 words · K k:KXALTMANMENTION-25DEC09 · as_of 2026-10-24T02:58:15Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-09 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-07-22..2025-10-10 (under 2 tv episode transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXALTMANMENTION-25DEC09 ({word} = w of K rows): If Sam Altman says {word} as part of The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Compute	compute	1	1	1	Y	2	2	0.43	hist	no
IP / Intellectual Property	intellectual property|ip	1	1	1	Y	2	1	0.43	hist	no
Sora	sora	1	1	1	Y	2	1	0.43	hist	no
Regulation	regulation	2	1	0.5	Yn	2	1	0.31	hist	no
AGI	agi	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.2	hist	no
Elon	elon	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.2	hist	no
Google / Gemini	gemini|google	1	0	0	n	2	1	0.2	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.2	hist	no
Nvidia	nvidia	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.19	hist	no
China	china	2	0	0	nn	2	0	0.18	hist	no
Privacy	privacy	2	0	0	nn	2	0	0.18	hist	no
Meme	meme	2	0	0	nn	2	0	0.16	hist	no
5.2 / GPT-5.2	52|gpt 52	0	0			2	0	0.26	prior	no
Code Red	code red	0	0			2	0	0.26	prior	no
Valuation	valuation	0	0			2	0	0.26	prior	no