All-In Podcast, October 9, 2026
On the Oct 9, 2026 episode of All-In Podcast, 8 of the 13 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 13 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
13 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI 50+ times | Yes | 58 | 58 | ✓ | 83%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times | Yes | 34 | 34 | ✓ | 90%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic 5+ times | Yes | 25 | 25 | ✓ | 83%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Company | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 70%n=6 from settlement history | – | |
| Massive | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Microsoft | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 26%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| IPO | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 89%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 70%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| SpaceX 3+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 62%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Battleground | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Smartphone | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · All-In Podcast podcast audio (All-In), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
6 matches for “OpenAI”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…of work, anthropic things, Claude might be conscious. Welcome back to This Week in Claude. We had OpenAI for a year with all their drama.
…community believes. Yeah, I mean, literally, here's a Wikipedia page. All right, OpenAI has had some major breakthroughs in math and they're getting some big…
The mathematicians are still checking on it, I understand. Tuesday, on Tuesday, OpenAI released over 700 papers, 700, with 370 results claiming to have solved…
…hey, get all your public wallets deleted. Now, the rumor is that OpenAI actually has two more drops coming. And they're holding back on those.
…and it is changing everything. So maybe your thoughts here on Dots, OpenAI, GrokBot, etc. On Dots and Muse and GrokBot, I think that what's…
Where the listed words were said
…remained uneasy about the idea, but many emerged ready to take the question of AI consciousness seriously. At least a few came away as converts.
…i've never spent this much money on a hotel room but i'm staying at the uh eight hundred dollars yeah it was 950 you nailed
…The Pope's first encyclical was focused on moral questions around AI, also known as superintelligence now. Anthropic co-founder Chris Ola joined the Pope to present
…now what's what's a pre-accelerator so it turns out like half the companies that apply to get funding are not yet incorporated, but they have…
…occurring at the same time of the compression of software that Chamath is talking about, which will lead to massive deflationary cost savings and speed.
…want me to play the clip or you want to just... Yeah, play the clip from Mustafa Sullyman. He's the It's the Microsoft AI CEO.
This is a point Mark Zuckerberg has made. So I do think market forces play a role here. But I do think that there are…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/all-in-podcast:2026-10-09:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=all-in-podcast:2026-10-09:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP