All-In Podcast, October 9, 2026
On the Oct 9, 2026 episode of All-In Podcast, 8 of the 13 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 13 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
13 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI 50+ times | Yes | 58 | 58 | ✓ | 83%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times | Yes | 34 | 34 | ✓ | 90%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic 5+ times | Yes | 25 | 25 | ✓ | 83%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Company | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 70%n=6 from settlement history | – | |
| Massive | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Microsoft | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 26%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| IPO | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 89%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 70%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| SpaceX 3+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 62%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Battleground | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Smartphone | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · All-In Podcast podcast audio (All-In), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
35 matches for “Model”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…think it's extremely dangerous. I actually think that what they're doing in model training and training the next version of the frontier with these values…
…this, is that they're overcomplicating the task massively by trying to train the model to behave based on an 80-page ethical system that they've codified.
…a, you know, quote unquote, moral patient. And they are encouraging this model to have human-like self-conception in terms of preferences, well-being, a sense of…
…come back to, I think this is the main safety issue in model training today is that you're actually training the model to think of…
dangerous than, again, just making sure the model behaves in a reliable and predictable way that the user expects. And they are codifying their values…
Where the listed words were said
…remained uneasy about the idea, but many emerged ready to take the question of AI consciousness seriously. At least a few came away as converts.
…i've never spent this much money on a hotel room but i'm staying at the uh eight hundred dollars yeah it was 950 you nailed
What are you going to do? Colin. Speaking of work, anthropic things, Claude might be conscious. Welcome back to This Week in Claude. We had…
…now what's what's a pre-accelerator so it turns out like half the companies that apply to get funding are not yet incorporated, but they have…
…you say it out loud? I'm not making this up. Everyone needs to be, you can go fact check this. Just go Google it, okay?
…occurring at the same time of the compression of software that Chamath is talking about, which will lead to massive deflationary cost savings and speed.
…want me to play the clip or you want to just... Yeah, play the clip from Mustafa Sullyman. He's the It's the Microsoft AI CEO.
This is a point Mark Zuckerberg has made. So I do think market forces play a role here. But I do think that there are…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/all-in-podcast:2026-10-09:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=all-in-podcast:2026-10-09:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP