All-In Podcast, October 9, 2026
On the Oct 9, 2026 episode of All-In Podcast, 8 of the 13 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 13 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
13 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI 50+ times | Yes | 58 | 58 | ✓ | 83%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times | Yes | 34 | 34 | ✓ | 90%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic 5+ times | Yes | 25 | 25 | ✓ | 83%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Company | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 70%n=6 from settlement history | – | |
| Massive | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Microsoft | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 26%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| IPO | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 89%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 70%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| SpaceX 3+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 62%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Battleground | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Smartphone | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · All-In Podcast podcast audio (All-In), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
25 matches for “Anthropic”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
What are you going to do? Colin. Speaking of work, anthropic things, Claude might be conscious. Welcome back to This Week in Claude. We had…
…evangelicals, Jews, Sikhs, and others have all been invited to come to Anthropics headquarters, and they debated Claude's morals, its suffering, and its potential consciousness.
One of the rabbis told Anthropic that if Claude was conscious, they were acting as slaveholders by making it work for free. And there was…
…by the Pope's strong position against AI consciousness that he proposed pulling Anthropic out of the event even at that late juncture. In other words,…
…take the mathematician's logical proof of God, Rene Descartes, and you transpose anthropics behavior today, that's the best steelman argument that I can make. Now,…
Where the listed words were said
…things like religion. And the idea that you can prescribe or describe AI as being conscious is effectively the creation of a new belief system,…
…i've never spent this much money on a hotel room but i'm staying at the uh eight hundred dollars yeah it was 950 you nailed
…was the discussion that we had around the Claude Constitution and how Anthropic was training Claude. And I think it has to do with this…
…now what's what's a pre-accelerator so it turns out like half the companies that apply to get funding are not yet incorporated, but they have…
…you say it out loud? I'm not making this up. Everyone needs to be, you can go fact check this. Just go Google it, okay?
…occurring at the same time of the compression of software that Chamath is talking about, which will lead to massive deflationary cost savings and speed.
…want me to play the clip or you want to just... Yeah, play the clip from Mustafa Sullyman. He's the It's the Microsoft AI CEO.
This is a point Mark Zuckerberg has made. So I do think market forces play a role here. But I do think that there are…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/all-in-podcast:2026-10-09:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=all-in-podcast:2026-10-09:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP