All In with Chris Hayes (MS NOW), October 5, 2026
On the Oct 5, 2026 episode of All In with Chris Hayes, 7 of the 16 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 16 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
16 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 16 of 16- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 5 | 23 | ✓ | 60%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 4 | 6 | ✓ | 64%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 2 | 6 | ✓ | 73%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 55%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Barack / Obama | Yes | 2 | 8 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Union | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AIPAC | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | 4 | ✓ | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rogers | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | 37%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
0 matches for “Text / Texted”.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/all-in-with-chris-hayes:2026-10-05:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=all-in-with-chris-hayes:2026-10-05:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP