All-In Podcast, September 25, 2026
On the Sep 25, 2026 episode of All-In Podcast, 8 of the 10 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 10 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
10 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 10 of 10- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI 50+ times | Yes | 58 | 58 | ✓ | 81%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times | Yes | 31 | 31 | ✓ | 89%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic 5+ times | Yes | 29 | 29 | ✓ | 81%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| IPO | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 88%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 66%n=5 from settlement history | – | |
| Microsoft | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 69%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 19%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| SpaceX 3+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 66%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Smartphone | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · All-In Podcast podcast audio (All-In), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
2 matches for “China”; 2 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…then we're going to turn that off. And then meanwhile, you've got China saying, come over here, come and see what it's like over here,…
…invite them to come to the United States. That was our playbook. China's taking our playbook. And then they're going to try to get investment…
Where the listed words were said
…the content and Demeter really helped calm down this national panic over AI. It felt like we were the center of this national conversation. And…
All right, everybody, welcome back to episode 290 of the number one podcast in the world. It's the All In Podcast. With me again, it's…
…these are the adults doing the corporation stuff. What are your thoughts here if you were going to architect how anthropic operates in the world?
…going to compete. These trends may force them to do that. And I think then that sets up a very interesting setup for their IPO.
…comes out version you know 2.1 It's an open weights model that outperforms Nano Banana 2, which is Google's big breakthrough insane image generation model.
You have also Microsoft Satya at Google and Muse at Zuckerberg's house. They're all embracing open source models and they all have hosting now. Can…
…you can run it on a local computer. You can have an NVIDIA chip or have a good Mac Studio computer, and you can run…
…that product releases like this will help a lot. I I mean, Mark Zuckerberg said in his essay that he thought that AI capabilities should…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/all-in-podcast:2026-09-25:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=all-in-podcast:2026-09-25:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP