All In with Chris Hayes (MS NOW), September 21, 2026
On the Sep 21, 2026 episode of All In with Chris Hayes, 5 of the 13 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 13 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
13 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Job / Employment / Unemployment | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 48%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 67%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 1 | 6 | ✓ | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 52 | ✓ | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 0 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | 7 | ✓ | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation / Inflationary | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
6 matches for “Senate”; counts and timings only, no caption text.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/all-in-with-chris-hayes:2026-09-21:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=all-in-with-chris-hayes:2026-09-21:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP