Special Report with Bret Baier: Episode, Sep 11, 2026
On the Sep 11, 2026 episode of Special Report with Bret Baier, 4 of the 14 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
UpdatedMarkets
14 words · 4 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 5 | 20 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 4 | 15 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 2 | 17 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Surveillance / FISA | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 0 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FBI / CIA | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tulsi / Gabbard | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/special-report-with-bret-baier:2026-09-11:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=special-report-with-bret-baier:2026-09-11:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP