Jay Clayton
As of Oct 27, 2026, Kalshi has settled 14 word markets on Jay Clayton’s appearances since 2026, on 14 different words.
History Wall
1–14 of 14, most settled first| Word | Sep 11latest | Last 1 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 2 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 11 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Iran / Iranian | 5 times: Iran / Iranian, Sep 11 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 4 times: Terrorist / Terrorism, Sep 11 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Trump | 1 time: Trump, Sep 11 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| China / Chinese | 0 times: China / Chinese, Sep 11 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| FBI / CIA | 0 times: FBI / CIA, Sep 11 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Democrat | 0 times: Democrat, Sep 11 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Election | 0 times: Election, Sep 11 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Epstein | 0 times: Epstein, Sep 11 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Surveillance / FISA | 0 times: Surveillance / FISA, Sep 11 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Tulsi / Gabbard | 0 times: Tulsi / Gabbard, Sep 11 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | 0 times: Zohran / Mamdani, Sep 11 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Russia / Russian | 0 times: Russia / Russian, Sep 11 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Ukraine | 0 times: Ukraine, Sep 11 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 1Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Jay Clayton say during Fox News: Special Report? | Captions · machine-attributed | 15 | 4 yes · 11 no | 14/14 (100%) |
Citeparrot.markets, “Jay Clayton: mention market word history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jay-clayton (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/jay-clayton · words: /api/v1/history?entity=jay-clayton · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP