Will “China / Chinese” be said on Special Report next time?
As of Oct 27, 2026, “China / Chinese” was said on Special Report in 2 of 3 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 11, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 11, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Special Report with Bret Baier
China / Chinese
- Probability
- 46% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 3 episodes
- said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 4 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Counts: named speaker only
3 counted; 10 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | China / Chinese |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “China / Chinese” said on Special Report?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, “China / Chinese” was said on Special Report in 2 of 3 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 11, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026.
- What is the probability “China / Chinese” is said on Special Report next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Special Report: ‘China / Chinese’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/special-report-with-bret-baier/words/china-or-chinese (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=special-report-with-bret-baier&word=china%20%2F%20chinese · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=special-report-with-bret-baier&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP