Will “Iran / Iranian” be said on Special Report next time?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on Special Report in 2 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 16, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 11, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Special Report with Bret Baier
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 45% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 3 episodes
- said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted; 15 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Iran / Iranian” said on Special Report?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on Special Report in 2 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 16, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 11, 2026.
- What is the probability “Iran / Iranian” is said on Special Report next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Special Report: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/special-report-with-bret-baier/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=special-report-with-bret-baier&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=special-report-with-bret-baier&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP