All-In Podcast, September 11, 2026
On the Sep 11, 2026 episode of All-In Podcast, 6 of the 10 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 10 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
10 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 10 of 10- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI 50+ times | Yes | 125 | 125 | ✓ | 75%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times | Yes | 40 | 40 | ✓ | 86%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic 5+ times | Yes | 28 | 28 | ✓ | 75%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| IPO | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 85%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 67%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 62%n=4 from settlement history | – | |
| SpaceX 3+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 77%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Smartphone | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Microsoft | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Mark Zuckerberg | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · All-In Podcast podcast audio (All-In), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
8 matches for “Safety”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…you saw that when his boss or the person who's running this safety team is he's saying that, yeah, we all agree with you. And…
…to a value in the trillions. On the other hand, your own safety lead, not Jacob Cox and the boss who then sort of co-signed…
Imagine that whole trust and safety regime that happened during COVID where social media was basically censored in cooperation with the federal government. The White…
…we shouldn't confirm that AI is safe, and that we shouldn't build safety systems, and that we shouldn't be responsive and thoughtful about where things…
…power and control structure to tell a narrative of existential threat and leverage that narrative into your solution being the path to protection and safety.
Where the listed words were said
…I'm going all in. Saks, we have to talk about Anthropic. A researcher just quit over AI fears that he thinks could kill us all.
a tweet go to 150 million views since Elon said he was going to put the cocaine back in Coca-Cola, which I think was the…
…going to get into it. Evan Hubinger, who leads Alignment Science at Anthropic, responded to Jacob. Quote, Jacob is correct here. We really do earnestly…
…both of them did with Playboy, but that was well before the IPO window. And then they published it in the middle of their quiet…
…typical risks. Okay, just explain. The typical risk, Jason, that they would have had would have said competition. NVIDIA may not give us the chips.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/all-in-podcast:2026-09-11:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=all-in-podcast:2026-09-11:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP