All-In Podcast, September 11, 2026
On the Sep 11, 2026 episode of All-In Podcast, 6 of the 10 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 10 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
10 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 10 of 10- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI 50+ times | Yes | 125 | 125 | ✓ | 75%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times | Yes | 40 | 40 | ✓ | 86%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic 5+ times | Yes | 28 | 28 | ✓ | 75%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| IPO | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 85%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 67%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 62%n=4 from settlement history | – | |
| SpaceX 3+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 77%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Smartphone | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Microsoft | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Mark Zuckerberg | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · All-In Podcast podcast audio (All-In), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
12 matches for “IPO”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…both of them did with Playboy, but that was well before the IPO window. And then they published it in the middle of their quiet…
…was just about the network effects of Slack. It wasn't super effusive. I remember it. But that almost stopped our IPO. And we had to
What does it do to their IPO process? Now, Saks, you jokingly said, stop the IPO. But what is the SEC supposed to do? What…
…a tension here in Anthropik's position that I do think implicates their IPO process. And the tension is this. On the one hand, you're asking…
…Bernie Sanders may be right that further development should be frozen, in which case I don't see how they can IPO now in the trillions.
Where the listed words were said
…I'm going all in. Saks, we have to talk about Anthropic. A researcher just quit over AI fears that he thinks could kill us all.
a tweet go to 150 million views since Elon said he was going to put the cocaine back in Coca-Cola, which I think was the…
…going to get into it. Evan Hubinger, who leads Alignment Science at Anthropic, responded to Jacob. Quote, Jacob is correct here. We really do earnestly…
…agree with Bernie Sanders is dangerous, how can they be allowed to IPO at this point in time? Why would any public market investor want…
…typical risks. Okay, just explain. The typical risk, Jason, that they would have had would have said competition. NVIDIA may not give us the chips.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/all-in-podcast:2026-09-11:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=all-in-podcast:2026-09-11:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP