Tesla Cybercab Launch, Sep 3, 2026
At the keynote on Sep 3, 2026, Tesla said 0 of the 16 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
16 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: company speakers
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Optimus | No | 69%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Full Self-Driving / FSD | No | 67%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Subscriber / Subscription | No | 63%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Safety monitor / Safety driver | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 30,000 / 30k / $30,000 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI4 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Butterfly door | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Exponential | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Flood / Flooding | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Geofence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Las Vegas / Nevada | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Per-mile | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Uber | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unsupervised | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Waymo | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gigafactory | No | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tesla:2026-09-03:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tesla:2026-09-03:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP