All In with Chris Hayes (MS NOW), August 24, 2026
On the Aug 24, 2026 episode of All In with Chris Hayes, 7 of the 12 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 11 of 12 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James / Talarico | Yes | 8 | 10 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat / Democratic | Yes | 4 | 9 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 3 | 5 | ✓ | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 3 | 36 | ✓ | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ted / Cruz | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 1 | 4 | ✓ | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 56%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 1 | 6 | ✗ | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Immigrant / Immigration | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Redistrict / Redistricted / Redistricting | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
6 matches for “Iran”; counts and timings only, no caption text.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/all-in-with-chris-hayes:2026-08-24:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=all-in-with-chris-hayes:2026-08-24:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP