Microsoft (MSFT): FY26 Q4 earnings call, Jul 29, 2026
On its Jul 29, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q4), Microsoft said 19 of the 26 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 25 of 26 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
26 words · 19 settled yes · our count agreed on 25 of 26- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copilot 20+ times | Yes | 33 | 33 | ✓ | 80%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 4:29, Copilot 20+ times | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 30+ times | Yes | 29 | 29 | ✗ | 74%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 3:26, AI / Artificial Intelligence 30+ times | – |
| Security 5+ times | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 2:57, Security 5+ times | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | 14 | 14 | ✓ | 97%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 5:10, OpenAI | – |
| GitHub | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 96%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 7:31, GitHub | – |
| GitHub 10+ times | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 64%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 7:31, GitHub 10+ times | – |
| Frontier | Yes | 11 | 13 | ✓ | 52%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 7:11, Frontier | – |
| Foundry | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 6:26, Foundry | – |
| Fabric | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 88%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 9:18, Fabric | – |
| Anthropic | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 71%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 6:09, Anthropic | – |
| Memory | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 72%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 7:05, Memory | – |
| Database | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 8:38, Database | – |
| AMD / Advanced Micro Devices | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 66%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 5:00, AMD / Advanced Micro Devices | – |
| Latency | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 60%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 6:00, Latency | – |
| Maia | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 46%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 5:01, Maia | – |
| Excel | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 79%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 7:43, Excel | – |
| Activision / Blizzard | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 28%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 29:36, Activision / Blizzard | – |
| Helios | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 18%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 5:19, Helios | – |
| Cybersecurity | Yes | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 31%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Gaming | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 90%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Game Pass | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 74%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Windows 11 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Sentinel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Call of Duty | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Phi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Layoff / Job Cuts | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
6 matches for “Xbox”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…Finally, let me talk about devices and consumer. When it comes to Xbox, we are making the necessary decisions required across our content portfolio platform…
…program, which were partially offset by severance expense and impairment charges in Xbox. When adjusting for these items, we exceeded expectations across revenue, operating income,…
…Edge and Bing, as well as higher volume, though growth was impacted by third-party partnerships. In Xbox, revenue decreased 10% and 11% in constant currency.
…investments in shared R&D noted earlier, as well as impairment charges in Xbox. Operating income decreased 14% and 15% in constant currency, and operating margins…
In Xbox content and services, we expect revenue to decline in the mid-single digits. Hardware revenue should decline year-over-year. Therefore, at the total company level,…
Where the listed words were said
…across silicon systems and software. For example, we increased the throughput for Copilot workloads 4x since the start of the year. AI sovereignty is increasingly…
…surpassed $100 billion, up 41%. Going forward, we have two goals. Ensuring AI empowers every person, amplifying their agency and ambition, and empowering every organization…
…our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any…
…the latest generation hardware in our fleet and is now supporting both OpenAI and MAI models. And we will be among the first cloud providers…
…with great results. For example, millions of developers have used MAI-Code-1-Flash on GitHub Copilot, achieving higher code acceptance rates and 10% lower median token usage…
When it comes to developers, GitHub Copilot now has 50 million users. This quarter, we introduced usage-based billing and have continued to see business and…
…usage. To help customers capture that opportunity this month, we launched Microsoft Frontier Company, the largest outcome-driven engineering organization in the industry. We will embed…
…& Co., for example, is using models from OpenAI and Anthropic on Foundry as it brings more than 1,000 domain-specific agents into a unified enterprise…
…deployments. When it comes to analytics, we now have over 40,000 paid Fabric customers, up more than 60% year-over-year, and over 17,000 customers now use…
…and expense was $2.8 billion, driven by the gain on investment in Anthropic noted earlier. Capital expenditures were $41 billion, including the impact from higher…
…importantly, we are building a new model system where the harness, context, memory, and action space are separate from any one model family, thereby moving…
Customers are rapidly adopting our AI-optimized databases like Cosmos DB and PostgreSQL to give agents fast, secure access to real-time data and context they need…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/microsoft:2026-07-29:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=microsoft:2026-07-29:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP