Microsoft (MSFT): FY26 Q4 earnings call, Jul 29, 2026
On its Jul 29, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q4), Microsoft said 19 of the 26 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 25 of 26 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
26 words · 19 settled yes · our count agreed on 25 of 26- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copilot 20+ times | Yes | 33 | 33 | ✓ | 80%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 4:29, Copilot 20+ times | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 30+ times | Yes | 29 | 29 | ✗ | 74%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 3:26, AI / Artificial Intelligence 30+ times | – |
| Security 5+ times | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 2:57, Security 5+ times | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | 14 | 14 | ✓ | 97%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 5:10, OpenAI | – |
| GitHub | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 96%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 7:31, GitHub | – |
| GitHub 10+ times | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 64%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 7:31, GitHub 10+ times | – |
| Frontier | Yes | 11 | 13 | ✓ | 52%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 7:11, Frontier | – |
| Foundry | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 6:26, Foundry | – |
| Fabric | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 88%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 9:18, Fabric | – |
| Anthropic | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 71%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 6:09, Anthropic | – |
| Memory | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 72%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 7:05, Memory | – |
| Database | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 8:38, Database | – |
| AMD / Advanced Micro Devices | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 66%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 5:00, AMD / Advanced Micro Devices | – |
| Latency | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 60%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 6:00, Latency | – |
| Maia | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 46%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 5:01, Maia | – |
| Excel | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 79%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 7:43, Excel | – |
| Activision / Blizzard | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 28%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 29:36, Activision / Blizzard | – |
| Helios | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 18%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 5:19, Helios | – |
| Cybersecurity | Yes | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 31%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Gaming | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 90%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Game Pass | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 74%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Windows 11 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Sentinel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Call of Duty | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Phi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Layoff / Job Cuts | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
14 matches for “OpenAI”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…the latest generation hardware in our fleet and is now supporting both OpenAI and MAI models. And we will be among the first cloud providers…
…first-party workloads as well as workloads for customers, including Adobe, Arm, Elastic, OpenAI, Sprinklr, and TomTom. By the end of this month, we expect to…
…catalog in the cloud with over 11,000 models, including the latest from OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral, xAI, as well as our own MAI family. Since the…
…on GitHub Copilot, achieving higher code acceptance rates and 10% lower median token usage while still having access to frontier capabilities from OpenAI and Anthropic.
…increase of 23% when adjusted for the impact from our investment in OpenAI, and FX was roughly in line with guidance. Several discrete items impacted…
Where the listed words were said
…across silicon systems and software. For example, we increased the throughput for Copilot workloads 4x since the start of the year. AI sovereignty is increasingly…
…surpassed $100 billion, up 41%. Going forward, we have two goals. Ensuring AI empowers every person, amplifying their agency and ambition, and empowering every organization…
…our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any…
…declined 2% year-over-year. When adjusted for the impact of our investments in OpenAI, other income and expense was $2.8 billion, driven by the gain on…
When it comes to developers, GitHub Copilot now has 50 million users. This quarter, we introduced usage-based billing and have continued to see business and…
…organizations across every industry, including over 90% of the Fortune 500, choose GitHub for their AI-powered development. The agentic era is being built on GitHub.…
…action space are separate from any one model family, thereby moving the frontier on the cost-to-outcome curve. It's not just about cost. It also has…
…This system is available to any company to use as part of Foundry. The next layer is the enterprise data and context. The data estate…
…deployments. When it comes to analytics, we now have over 40,000 paid Fabric customers, up more than 60% year-over-year, and over 17,000 customers now use…
These included a $3.2 billion gain from our investment in Anthropic and lower than expected expenses related to the voluntary retirement program, which were partially…
…agents fast, secure access to real-time data and context they need for memory and retrieval. PostgreSQL revenue was up 55%, accelerating for the third consecutive…
…and are now at an all-time high, this quarter alone, we cut latency by 25%. These quality improvements, together with continued product innovation, are driving…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/microsoft:2026-07-29:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=microsoft:2026-07-29:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP