Face the Nation (CBS), July 19, 2026
On the Jul 19, 2026 episode of Face the Nation, 3 of the 12 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
12 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Body Cam / Body Camera | Yes | 3 | 6 | ✓ | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 0 | 17 | ✓ | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Maine | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | 0 | 63 | ✓ | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mask / Masked | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · CBS News, Face the Nation transcript · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
11 matches for “ICE”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…moratorium, and White House border czar Tom Homan on growing scrutiny of ICE operations. And, finally: Is inflation cooling? We will ask Bank of America…
…to pull something that could potentially – he's not ruled out bringing ICE to the polls. He's not even ruled out the idea of trying…
…And just recently, I signed a law, many, many protections against what ICE is doing, to say, ICE agents cannot show up at polling places.
…sanctuary cities and at these protests that resist. Members of Congress saying ICE isn't a real law enforcement agency. I think that – I actually…
…enforcement deals with mis identity every day across the country, not just ICE, every law enforcement agency. I was a cop. I know – I…
Where the listed words were said
I think body – yes, I think body cameras are the way to go. I think body cameras let the American people know what that…
I'm not in the loop on that. I'm the White House border czar. So, they'd be a question for Markwayne Mullin. I'm not in the…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/face-the-nation:2026-07-19:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=face-the-nation:2026-07-19:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP