Ken Griffin: Semafor World Economy 2026, Apr 14, 2026
At the keynote on Apr 14, 2026, Ken Griffin said 6 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. The transcript is searchable below (quotes of at most 25 words).
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | Yes | 12 | 46 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump / President | Yes | 11 | 27 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | Yes | 9 | 16 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Europe / European | Yes | 4 | 72 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 3 | 59 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | Yes | 1 | 13 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| American Dream | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Miami | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gold | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · Semafor (YouTube) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
46 matches for “Inflation”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…rate cuts in '26. I just wanted some evidence that we that inflation was headed back down to 2%. That the tariff inflation was actually…
…a dangerous slippery spot uh to be in. The longer this uh inflation disruption goes, the more likely it is, in my view, that the…
…why a stagflationary shock, that is something that makes employment worse and inflation worse simultaneously, that's the worst environment that a central bank has to…
…are big problems with the credibility for central banks making predictions about inflation that do not come true. If you tell people, "We're doing nothing…
And people consumers do not like inflation. That's That's understandable.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/ken-griffin:2026-04-14:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=ken-griffin:2026-04-14:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP