Airbnb (ABNB): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Feb 12, 2026
On its Feb 12, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Airbnb said 5 of the 10 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 10 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
10 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 10 of 10- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boutique | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 59%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| International | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 68%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Take Rate | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 51%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Domestic | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 71%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Service Agent | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 71%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Social Media | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 82%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Acquisition | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| China | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Home Sharing | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Holiday | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
6 matches for “Tailwind”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…as much revenue this year as Hawaii and will remain a strong tailwind for years to come. Next up, supply. Most of our supply growth…
…year-over-year growth of 14% to 16%. This includes an approximate 3-point FX tailwind after factoring in our hedging program. We expect gross booking value to…
…digits with an ambition to grow even faster than that. While FX tailwinds should fade as the year progresses, we're encouraged by healthy demand and…
…acceleration drivers across the core markets, expansion market services and perhaps any tailwinds from major events like the World Cup and Olympics? And are you…
…in our category and with AI supporting it, I think it's going to continue to improve. So yes, it's been a huge tailwind for us.
Where the listed words were said
…from the very beginning. And to capture even more trips, we're bringing boutique and independent hotels onto the platform so that no matter what kind…
…half of all bookings on Airbnb. We also apply the Hawaii model international growth. Airbnb operates in nearly every country in the world, but roughly…
…larger percent of the overall business going forward. In terms of the take rate expansion in Q1 and what's going on with the, I would…
…begun focusing on. So in particular, what I would call out is domestic Japan. That's a market and segment that we began our expansion playbook…
…significantly more than 30% of tickets will be handled by a customer service agent in many more languages in all the languages where we have…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/airbnb:2026-02-12:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=airbnb:2026-02-12:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP