Shopify (SHOP): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Feb 11, 2026
On its Feb 11, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Shopify said 5 of the 8 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 8- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Service | Yes | 10 | 11 | ✓ | 79%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Shop Pay | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 93%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Acquired / Acquisition | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 86%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 58%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Klarna | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Amazon | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 53%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Black Friday | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
8 matches for “Shop Pay”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…I said, we also have merchants convert that demand with trust, enter Shop Pay, which is fast, trusted and increasingly everywhere. 2025 saw Shop Pay…
…more than half of our U.S. payment volume in Q4 flow through Shop Pay. That is serious adoption. In 2026, we expect to see Shop…
…factors that we saw in 2025. Robust growth in payments led by Shop Pay, continued success of the merchants already on our platform, acquisition of…
…a couple of years ago where non-Shopify merchants can use things like Shop Pay or they can simply use Shopify Checkout as a component, that…
…them sell across every channel, whether it's social channels. We're showing the Shop Pay in itself is an incredible on-ramp into Shopify. They're seeing the…
Where the listed words were said
…and effective. We win more merchants to sell for. We build more services from to sell on, and we attract more buyers for them to…
…45% or 35% in constant currency. Growth was fairly balanced between new acquisitions and growth from existing merchants, a consistent trend across multiple quarters in…
…positioned to seize this opportunity. In 2025, our merchants faced daunting challenges, tariffs, the removal of de minimis exemptions, trade wars and the ever-changing geopolitical…
…system on the back end. Now with something like ChatGPT, for example, open AI will run the front end, which is sort of the screens…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/shopify:2026-02-11:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=shopify:2026-02-11:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP