Shopify (SHOP): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Feb 11, 2026
On its Feb 11, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Shopify said 5 of the 8 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 8- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Service | Yes | 10 | 11 | ✓ | 79%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Shop Pay | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 93%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Acquired / Acquisition | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 86%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 58%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Klarna | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Amazon | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 53%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Black Friday | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
11 matches for “Service”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…and effective. We win more merchants to sell for. We build more services from to sell on, and we attract more buyers for them to…
…earlier, when we think about selling, we think about 3 things: more services to sell on, more buyers to sell to and more merchants to…
…we are creating it. Now beyond the world of AI shopping, another service area that we will continue to grow in 2026 is off-line retail.…
…AI chat or in person. Okay. We've talked a lot about new service areas for our merchants to sell on, but we're also expanding their…
…serious adoption. In 2026, we expect to see Shop Pay earn more services across the Internet, delivering better checked conversion rates and a great post-purchase…
Where the listed words were said
…with imagination, no technical skills required. And all of this is in service of one simple goal, get more of our merchants from first sale…
…I said, we also have merchants convert that demand with trust, enter Shop Pay, which is fast, trusted and increasingly everywhere. 2025 saw Shop Pay…
…45% or 35% in constant currency. Growth was fairly balanced between new acquisitions and growth from existing merchants, a consistent trend across multiple quarters in…
…positioned to seize this opportunity. In 2025, our merchants faced daunting challenges, tariffs, the removal of de minimis exemptions, trade wars and the ever-changing geopolitical…
…system on the back end. Now with something like ChatGPT, for example, open AI will run the front end, which is sort of the screens…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/shopify:2026-02-11:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=shopify:2026-02-11:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP