American Airlines (AAL): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Jan 27, 2026
On its Jan 27, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), American Airlines said 7 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago / O’Hare | Yes | 17 | 26 | ✓ | 91%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 46%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Weather | Yes | 5 | 7 | ✓ | 43%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Record | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 83%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Centennial | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| AT&T | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 61%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Holiday | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 53%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Lavazza | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| ATC | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| World Cup | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Norfolk / Virginia | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
7 matches for “Weather”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…Fern. Ensuring our customers and team members remain safe during this challenging weather event. The impact of the storm is as significant as we've ever…
…we've had to cancel more than 9,000 flights, making this the largest weather-related operational disruption in our history. We expect at least two more days…
…storm fern. Our guidance always includes a completion factor assumption for winter weather. But as Robert mentioned earlier, the impact of this storm is unlike…
…traditionally use as we continue to evaluate the impact of this extraordinary weather event. For the full year, we expect adjusted earnings per diluted share…
…like that Dallas has had more than its fair share of bad weather. And you know, I'm not here to sort of predict what I…
Where the listed words were said
…Philadelphia, Miami, and Phoenix. We'll also be rounding out our schedule in Chicago. Improved schedules combined with product enhancements are helping us win local high-value…
…These results came in below our guidance, primarily due to prolonged government shutdown, which impacted revenue by approximately $325 million. The impact of the government…
…premium global airline. We're out there every day even in these ridiculous weather conditions. Caring for people on life's journey. We have a focused plan…
…fast start based on the booking trends we've observed in January. All-time records for the first three weeks of the year. Starting with our first…
…new year. A momentous chapter in our history. As we celebrate American Centennial. I'm excited about the opportunities that lie ahead for American as we…
…aircraft. Dual-class regional jets, and our new premium Boeing 787-9s. Sponsored by AT&T, reinforcing connectivity as a core aspect of the customer journey and a…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/american-airlines:2026-01-27:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=american-airlines:2026-01-27:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP