Will American Airlines say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
American Airlines did not say “Shutdown / Shut Down” on its Oct 22, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 2 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 0, 2, 5, 0, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, American Airlines said “Shutdown / Shut Down” on 2 of 4 calls with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 23, 2025 (50%), most recently on Jan 27, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=4, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 10¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
American Airlines
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 40% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last calls
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
5 counted (4 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…These results came in below our guidance, primarily due to prolonged government shutdown, which impacted revenue by approximately $325 million. The impact of the government…
…positive in September and remained positive before the impact of the government shutdown. Excluding the government shutdown, year over year domestic unit revenue would have…
Counts: company speakers + operator
2 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…to uphold the safety and security of our industry during the government shutdown. We're hopeful that action will be taken to reopen the government as…
…in constant contact with Secretary Duffy about the impact of the government shutdown and doing everything we can to mitigate. And from that respect, a…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How many times did American Airlines say “Shutdown / Shut Down” on its last earnings call?
- American Airlines did not say “Shutdown / Shut Down” on its Oct 22, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 2 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 0, 2, 5, 0, 0, 0 times.
- How often does American Airlines say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, American Airlines said “Shutdown / Shut Down” on 2 of 4 calls with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 23, 2025 (50%), most recently on Jan 27, 2026.
- What is the probability American Airlines says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “American Airlines: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/AAL/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=american-airlines&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=american-airlines&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP